College Football: Week 6 Picks

The early games treated me well (4-1). The late games, not so much (1-3 including a 1.5-point loss on the Boise State over.) Still, I'll take a 5-4 week which pushes me to 10 games over .500 on the young season.

 

I don't see many opportunities this week, but here are the ones I do:

 

Temple +3.5 - The Owls have played better against tougher competition than Northern Illinois has. They are also 2-0 as a 'dog this year. Small sample size, I know, but I'm riding the hot team.

 

Oregon / Washington State Over 70 - This is the largest "over" I can remember taking, but with the combination of Oregon's historically great offense and Washington State's abysmal defense, the Ducks might run up 70 by themselves.

 

Miami -6 - I said it earlier this year when FSU played Oklahoma: until the Seminoles beat a quality opponent, I'm betting against them. 

 

Best Bet: Oregon State +10 - The Beavers have been playing solid football. Their only two losses came against top-5 teams - Boise State and TCU - and Ryan Katz seems to be gaining confidence.

 

Upset: Pittsburgh +6 - The Panthers' two losses this year were against far superior teams: Utah and MIami. They turned it on last week in the fourth quarter against FIU, and I am a believer in their running attack.

 

 

Record: 24-14 (Best Bet: 3-2; Upset: 2-3)

Huge News (Potentially) for The Banter App

Looks like the iPhone could be coming to Verizon by year end.

 

Remember to download The Sports Banter app. For those that already have, keep the suggestions for improvement(s) coming.

Two Early MLB Playoff Thoughts

-The story of the division serieses (I know this isn't a word, but it should be; or we should pluralize the word "seria") should have been Rocco Baldelli. At the beginning of the season, he was not an active player. He was a coach. In Game 1, he got the start for the Rays at DH and batted sixth. Incredible. Unfortunately, he got injured and was deactivated. Too bad.

 

-Anyone else find it hilarious that the Rays' first two games were scheduled in the afternoon time slot? The old folks down there must love that.

 

 

 

 

Previewing / Predicting the MLB Playoffs

Texas vs. Tampa Bay

 

2010 Head to Head: Tampa Bay won 4-2

 

Pitching: Cliff Lee gives the Rangers the ace atop their staff they desperately needed.  He never walks batters, but he saw only mild success since the midseason trade that brought him to Texas from Seattle. He will need to win Game 1 if the Rangers want to steal this series. Unfortunately for Texas, David Price will take the hill against Lee. Price, a Cy Young candidate himself, has put it all together this season, striking out 188 and maintaining a sub 1.2 WHIP. The Rays staff runs deeper than Texas' too. James Shields and Matt Garza could be frontline starters for numerous MLB clubs. Edge goes to Tampa Bay.

 

Lineups: The Rays scored the third most runs in baseball despite having only two regulars with an OPS above .750. If Evan Longoria isn't healthy, this team could be in trouble. The Rangers sport a lineup led by MVP favorite Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz. Mix in Vlad Guerrero, Michael Young, and Ian Kinsler and this team can do some damage. Edge goes to Texas here. 

 

Other: After Longoria and Price called out the fans in Tampa, it will be interesting to see how they are greeted. Will homefield become a disadvantage for them? I would assume not, but the elderly can be a funny people.

 

Prediction: Tampa Bay in 4 because of the pitching.

 

 

New York vs. Minnesota

 

2010 Head to Head: New York won 4-2

 

Pitching: Both rotations revolve around one key arm. For the Twins, that arm is Francisco Liriano and for the Yankee, it's CC Sabathia. I would imagine Ron Gardenhire trusts Carl Pavano more than Joe Girardi trusts anyone on his staff not named CC, but the dropoff behind the aces runs steep. Slight edge to the Twins because of Pavano, something Yankee fans probably can't be happy about.

 

Lineups: These two teams led all of baseball in on-base percentage, but the Yankees hit 59 more homers than the Twins. Now, the the spacious Target Field and bandbox known as Yankee Stadium have a lot to do with that, but it's still telling. Minnesota also played half the season without its biggest power threat, Justin Morneau, and a banged up Joe Mauer that only produced nine homers. The Yankees can bash with the best of them. Edge Yankees.

 

Other: Ironically, the Yankees' hope may rest with Derek Jeter, a player that has fantastic postseason numbers but comes off his worst season in an illustrious 15-year career.

 

Prediction: Minnesota in 5.

 

 

Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia

 

2010 Head to Head: Philadelphia won 5-2

 

Pitching: The Phillies' Big Three of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels are the class of these playoffs. They combined to strike out 523 batters. The Reds counter with Edinson Volquez, who only made 14 starts this year, the consistent Bronson Arroyo, and the consistently inconsistent Johnny Cueto. Huge edge to the Phillies.

 

Lineups: If the Reds want any chance to win the series, they will need to knock one of the Roys out out of a game early to get to the Philly bullpen. Difficult, yes, but not impossible as they have just the offense to do it. Led by MVP candidate Joey Votto, Cincy scored the most runs in the NL and led the league in team OPS. The Phillies also have a lineup with few weaknesses. If Chase Utley was healthy all year, they likely would have found themselves higer on the offensive leaderboards. Slight edge to Cincy.

 

Other: Carlos Ruiz, the Phillies' weakest everyday hitter, has reached base safely in 20 straight playoff games and has a career postseason OPS of .905.

 

Prediction: Philadelphia in 3.

 

 

Atlanta vs. San Francisco

 

2010 Head to Head: Atlanta won 4-3

 

Pitching: Both teams finished top-3 in team ERA, but the Giants staff struck out more batters than any staff in the league by a fairly wide margin. Tim Lincecum will get at least two starts, and for that reason alone, San Fran gets the edge on the hill (assuming Barry Zito doesn't steal a start along the way).

 

Lineups: Jason Heyward and Buster Posey will likely finish 1-2 (in some order) in the NL Rookie of the Year race. They are the best hitters on each of these respective teams, but neither lineup instills fear in an opponent as they scored the least number of runs of any playoff teams.   

 

Other: The Giants made the fourth least errors in the Majors (73) while the Braves made the third most (126).

 

Prediction: Giants in 4 with defense playing a big part.

 

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I will also go on record by predicting the Rays will beat the Phillies in the World Series. Sweet revenge for their 2008 defeat.

 

How Did I Do Predicting MLB Records?

Back in March, I tried to predict the win totals for each MLB team. How did I do?

 

	Proj	Actual	Diff
NYY	103	95	-8
Bos	95	89	-6
TB	93	96	3
Bal	67	66	-1
Tor	65	85	20
Min	84	94	10
Det	82	81	-1
Chi	81	88	7
Cle	68	69	1
KC	63	67	4
LAA	87	80	-7
Tex	83	90	7
Oak	80	81	1
Sea	79	61	-18
Atl	90	91	1
Phi	89	97	8
NYM	82	79	-3
Fla	77	80	3
Was	72	69	-3
StL	89	86	-3
Cin	84	91	7
Chi	83	75	-8
Mil	82	77	-5
Hou	78	76	-2
Pit	64	57	-7
Col	90	83	-7
LAD	84	80	-4
SF	82	92	10
SD	78	90	12
Ari	76	65	-11
		Std Dev	7.926385

 

 

Hits: Being bearish on Atlanta and bullish on the Dodgers.

 

Misses: Toronto wildly exceeded my expectations while the Mariners drastically underperformed by modest projections.

 

Overall: I don't have access to PECOTA and other predictive software, but I assume I'll fall in the upper echelon (top 25%). If you see anyone else publish something like this, please let me know.

11 Things I Know I Know

1. I know the Chicago Bears cannot be taken seriously after giving up nine sacks in the first half of last night's game against the Giants, a pathetic showing from offensive line and quarterback both. 3-0 may not have been a mirage, but it certainly does not look promising for Lovie Smith and his crew.

 

2. I know the St. Louis Rams are tied for first place and have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. Sam Bradford has been everything the organization hoped for, and the NFC West has been pathetic - 49ers are 0-4,  Seahawks can't win on the road, Cardinals have no quarterback. If they can beat the Lions on Sunday, the Rams will be over .500 for the first time since 2006.

 

3. I know the Eagles are in deep, deep trouble if Michael Vick is out for an extended period of time. Kevin Kolb looked terrible, and the team's running backs are all banged up.

 

4. I know Andy Reid needs to hire someone that understands clock management. Getting called for a delay of game after a timeout is inexcusable. Not the first time something like this has happened either.

 

5. I know LT's not done just yet. He's seventh in the league in rushing and boasts an impressive 6.1 yards per carry. The Jets are for real, sitting 3-1 with no help from Calvin Pace and Santonio Holmes and little help from Darrelle Revis.

 

6. I know Shaun Phillips had a career day against the Cardinals yesterday. The Chargers LB recorded six tackles, four sacks, an interception returned for a touchdown, and broke up two passes. Have a day.

 

7. I know the Falcons and the Saints are lucky to be 3-1 after four weeks. Neither team deserved to win yesterday, but both persevered much to the delight of Survivor Pool entrants nationwide. Michael Turner looks worn out already.

 

8. I know Joe Flacco grew up yesterday. What an impressive late-game drive at precisely the right time. His touchdown pass to TJH was a thing of beauty. The Ravens looked pretty impressive too. Ray Lewis looked like a wide receiver on his game-clinching interception. This won't be the last we hear of the Steelers though.

 

9. I know Josh Scobee saved the season for Jacksonville with his game-winning 59-yarder at the gun. The Jaguars find themselves only a game behind the Texans for first in the division. If they had lost, jacksonville would have been two back of Houston and Indy. Scobee is now 5-5 on field goals of 40 yards or more.

 

10. I know that if you told me before week one the Chiefs would be the only undefeated team in the league, I would have assumed you were clinically insane. Yet, that is exactly where we stand after four weeks (minus tonight's game). Great turnaround. I think I just heard the '72 Dolphins popping the champagne again.

 

11. I know the Patriots will win a shootout tonight, 38-30. Tom Brady thrives under the bright lights.

NFL: Week 4 Picks

Week 3 was a bounce-back week. I'll take 4-1 all year long. Let's try to top that this here.

 

Bengals -3: Until the Browns show some signs of life, the smart money goes against them.

 

Steelers -1.5: Charlie Batch and Co. have been great to me all year. No reason to go against them now.

 

Rams +1.5: Is it too early to pledge trust in a rookie QB? I don't think so. If the Rams win this one, they'll be on a winning streak, which hasn't happened since October 2008.

 

Best Bet: Patriots PK - Tom Brady in primetime? Guy lives for this.

 

Upset: Bears +4 - What do the Giants have to do to prove they just aren't that good?
  
Record: 8-6-1 (Best Bet: 2-1; Upset 1-1-1)