Monday, October 4, 2010

How Did I Do Predicting MLB Records?

Back in March, I tried to predict the win totals for each MLB team. How did I do?
 
                    
       Proj
     Actual
        Diff
NYY
103
95
-8
Bos
95
89
-6
TB
93
96
3
Bal
67
66
-1
Tor
65
85
20
 
 
 
 
Min
84
94
10
Det
82
81
-1
Chi
81
88
7
Cle
68
69
1
KC
63
67
4
 
 
 
 
LAA
87
80
-7
Tex
83
90
7
Oak
80
81
1
Sea
79
61
-18
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Atl
90
91
1
Phi
89
97
8
NYM
82
79
-3
Fla
77
80
3
Was
72
69
-3
 
 
 
 
StL
89
86
-3
Cin
84
91
7
Chi
83
75
-8
Mil
82
77
-5
Hou
78
76
-2
Pit
64
57
-7
 
 
 
 
Col
90
83
-7
LAD
84
80
-4
SF
82
92
10
SD
78
90
12
Ari
76
65
-11
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Std Dev
7.926385
 
 
Hits: Being bearish on Atlanta and bullish on the Dodgers.
 
Misses: Toronto wildly exceeded my expectations while the Mariners drastically underperformed by modest projections.
 
Overall: I don't have access to PECOTA and other predictive software, but I assume I'll fall in the upper echelon (top 25%). If you see anyone else publish something like this, please let me know.

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