MLBTR Link

Tnaks for the link in today's Baseball Blogs Weigh In, Mike.

 

That's five weeks and counting. Need to come up with something better next week...

2011: Hobby Tracker

Spending $1000 over an entire year on your favorite hobby seems like a reasonable investment. When that favorite hobby happens to be placing bets on sporting events / playing fantasy sports, it's an even better idea. After all, not many hobbies offer the potential for return on investment.

 

So, I allocated $1000 on January 1st to risk in 2011. Lucky for you, I'll track the progress here every week or two.

 

I have made four bets since the calendar flipped.

 

The first was a three team parlay on this weekend's Wildcard games: Jets ML w/ Ravens ML w/ Packers ML. Risk 25 to win 172.

 

The second was the Packers +3. Risk 100 to win 100.

 

After the Jets and Ravens hit, I had about an hour before the Packers game started. At this point, there were four potential outcomes:

 

Packers win outright: +272

Pack lose but cover: +75

Pack lose by 3: -25

Pack lose by 4 or more: -125

 

Losing the third game of a three-team parlay is infuriating. Couple that with the fact I had another 100 on the Pack covering, and it made sense for me to hedge. Since I put the Pack bet in, the line moved in my favor and sat at Philly -2. 

 

My third bet, placed 15 minutes before kickoff, was Philly -2. Risk 72 to win 65. Now the scenarios were:

 

Packers win outright: +200

Pack lose by 1: +3

Pack lose by 2: +75

Pack lose by 3: +40

Pack lose by 4 or more: -60

 

I minimized my upside in exchange for minimizing the downsize, and now I would make money if the game was decided by a field goal either way.

 

As it turns out, the Pack won outright so I shouldn't have hedged but the game was much more enjoyable knowing I was protected.

 

My fourth bet was a $200 wager on fantasy basketball. If my team beats another particular team in the league, I win. If not, I lose. Simple but it ties up my money until April.

 

 

As of 1/12/11-

 

Bankroll: $1000

At risk: $200 (fantasy basketball)

Intriguing lines: Seattle ML +395, NY Jets ML +325, Green Bay +2.5, Atlanta Hawks 35/1 to win Eastern Conference, Memphis Grizzlies 70/1 to win Western Conference, South Carolina 50/1 to win 2012 BCS Title

 

MLB Power Rankings: January 13, 2010

1. Red Sox

2. Phillies

3. Rangers

4. Braves

5. Giants

6. Yankees

7. White Sox

8. Tigers

9. Rays

10. Cardinals

11. Twins

12. Rockies

13. Brewers

14. Reds

15. Blue Jays

16. Dodgers

17. Athletics

18. Marlins

19. Cubs

20. Angels

21. Orioles

22. Nationals

23. Mariners

24. Padres

25. Mets

26. Astros

27. Indians

28. Diamondbacks

29. Pirates

30. Royals

Coupling Some of the Remaining Free Agents

Adam Dunn has found a new home on the South Side of Chicago where he will earn an average of $14m per season for the next four years. Dunn, possessor of mammo power, has hit 38 or more home runs every season for the last seven years. However, he has a sharp career platoon split. His numbers against lefthanded pitching are not terrible, but the bulk of the value he provides comes from the damage he does against righties:

 

vs RHP: .258 Avg; .393 OBP; .548 Slg; .941 OPS

vs LHP: .235 Avg; .352 OBP; .465 Slg; .817 OPS

 

Bill James predicts Dunn's 2011 line to look like this: 39 HR; .247 Avg; .373 OBP; .511 Slg; .884 OPS

 

My theory*: I think these players below, if coupled properly, could provide slightly less production for (potentially much) less cost than Adam Dunn.

 

*Note to self: Still need to get around to researching my theory that Carl Crawford - being the league's best LF - would make a great CF.

 

None of these six players is a Type A free agent, meaning they would not cost the signing team anything in the way of draft picks.

 

Tier I: Vlad Guerrero / Jim Thome

 

Estimated cost: $13.5m - $6.5m for Thome; $7m for Vlad

 

Projected line: 28 HR; .310 Avg; .410 OBP; .550 Slg; .960 OPS

 

Best Fit: LA Angels - The Angels have not been able to lure any big name free agents to the land of Disney, and no one seems to quite know why. There are no long-term fixes (read: young) free agents on the market this offseason, but the team is still in desperate need of power. These two would provide just that in the middle of the lineup.

 

Thome mashed against righties last year to the triple slash tune of 302 / 495 / 698. Just ridiculous. His success, at 40 years old, can at least partially be attributed to the fact he was able to rest against lefties on many days. In the scenario I am suggesting, Thome would have the same luxury because Vlad dominates southpaws.

 

Against lefties, Vlad hit 338 / 395 / 536 in 2010. those numbers are actually down from his career numbers of 325 / 406 / 588. To be expected as he ages.

 

Although not exactly models of health, both of these players are likely seeking one-year deals meaning the risk would be low, and Vlad is already familiar with the team having played there from 2005-09.

 

The upgrade at DH over Juan Rivera could be worth as many as four wins.

 

This lineup wouldn't look terrible either:

 

Erick Aybar, SS

Howie Kendrick, 2B

Bobby Abreu, LF

Torii Hunter, RF

Kendry Morales, 1B

Vlad / Thome DH

Alberto Callaspo, 3B

Peter Bourjos, CF

Jeff Mathis, C

 

Aside from Mathis, all others have the potential to do some damage with either the bat or on the basepaths.

 

 

Tier II: Manny Ramirez / Johnny Damon

 

Estimated cost: $8m plus incentives - $4m plus incentives for Manny; $4m for Damon

 

Projected line: 18 HR; .300 Avg; .380 OBP; .450 Slg; .830 OPS

 

Best Fit: Tampa Bay - This pairing offers a combination of skill sets with Manny supplying the power and Damon offering the on-base/speed attributes (although he only stole 11 bags last year).

 

By dealing Matt Garza, the Rays saved about $5m in 2011 salary. This would lead me to believe they have a bit of money to spend. Both struggled a bit in 2010, but is it worth the $8m gamble to see if one or both can regain their form? I think so, but then again it's not my money.

 

The lineups might look like this:

 

vs RHP

 

Damon, DH

Dan Johnson, 1B

Ben Zobrist, RF

Evan Longoria, 3B

Reid Brignac, SS

BJ Upton, CF

John Jaso, C

Sean Rodriguez, 2B

Desmond Jennings, LF

 

 

vs LHP

 

Desmond Jennings, LF

BJ Upton, CF

Ben Zobrist, RF

Evan Longoria, 3B

Manny, DH

Sean Rodriguez, 2B

Kelly Shoppach, C

Reid Brignac, SS

Dan Johnson, 1B

 

One potential pitfall: both players are represented by Scott Boras. The Rays have not been known to deal with him in the past although this likely has more to do with the fact that the players he represents fall out of the Rays' price range.

 

 

Tier III: Ruscus Thanyan (Russell Branyan / Marcus Thames)

 

Estimated cost: $2.5m - $1.5m for Branyan; $1m for Thames

 

Projected line: 24 HR; .260 Avg; .352 OBP; .500 Slg; .852 OPS

 

Best Fit: San Diego - For all the reasons described here.

 

 

 

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Wildcard Weekend: 11 Things I Know I Know

1- I know if a team wins its division, they deserve a home game in the playoffs. The Seahawks quieted all of the "no team with a losing record should be in the playoffs" talk, and I couldn't be happier.

 

It was assumed by nearly everyone including me (point 11) that New Orleans would roll over Seattle. Of course, it didn't happen, and the game set the tone for a great weekend of football.

 

2- I know the two biggest plays of the Jets-Colts game were the Antonio Cromartie kick return and the timeout Jim Caldwell called in the last minute of the game.

 

The Cromartie return put the Jets in scoring position. The importance of this play is obvious.

 

A somewhat less obvious play of importance was the Caldwell timeout with 0:29 left in the game and the Jets facing a second down at the Indy 33. 

 

There was no intelligent reason for Jim Caldwell to call timeout. What could he possibly have been thinking? "Let's give the Jets more time to put Nick Folk in closer range for a field goal"? Seriously, what was he thinking? Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth didn't make a big enough deal of this during the live broadcast. As a Jet fan, I only cheered louder once all night (as the winning field goal was going through the uprights) than I did when Caldwell called timeout.

 

The San Diego Chargers comes out of this one pretty happy as well. Because of the New York victory, the Chargers get the Jets' second round pick as a result of the offseason Antonio Cromartie trade. Had New York lost, it would have been a third rounder.

 

3- I know the Jets were in a position to win late because of the defense's play early. The Colts' first three drives went three and out. In fact, they all stalled on 3rd-and-1 at their own 29-yard line. Not many people will be talking about these early drives, but they allowed the Jets to hang around just long enough for their offense to awaken.

 

All of Rex Ryan's talk about his defense was warranted this week.

 

4- I know Peyton Manning shouldn't be blamed for this one. He had the Colts in position to win with under a minute left in the game. Not much more can be asked when three backups were starting along the offensive line, their tight end missed the entire season, and they lost their third and fourth best wide receivers. It was just too much to overcome, and the lack of skill finally caught up.

 

5- I know the Chiefs won the right games this year, but they simply could not compete on this level. Kansas City won one game all season against a team with a winning record (Week 1 against San Diego), and they were simply outclassed by the Ravens. Nice season, but it ended appropriately.

 

6- I know Aaron Rodgers grew up today. With under a minute to go in the first half and the Packers leading 14-3, Rodgers threw a perfect pass to James Jones which should have gone for a 63-yard touchdown. It would have given Green Bay an 18-point lead at the half. Instead, Jones dropped the pass, and the lead remained at 11.

 

On the first drive of the second half, Rodgers lost a fumble, and the Eagles scored a touchdown on the ensuing drive, cutting the lead to four with 27+ minutes to play.

 

Rodgers calmly led the Packers on an 11-play, 80-yard touchdown drive which bumped the lead back up to 11 points. It was a tremendously important drive and ultimately was the difference in the game.

 

7- I know that the coaches leading playoff teams are incredibly talented. With 16 weeks' worth of information, each coach can find, identify, and exploit their opponents' weaknesses. The Seahawks challenged the Saints' defense repeatedly. The Jets took away Reggie Wayne. The Ravens shut down the Chiefs' passing game forcing them to be one-dimensional. The Packers spied Michael Vick.  

 

The teams that come out victorious are the ones that can adjust on the fly.

 

8- I know all the talk about "not drafting safeties too high" is bogus. Every year around draft time, we hear something along the lines of "he would go higher but he plays safety." Can we stop all of that talk this year? Look at the top three drafted this year: Eric Berry, Earl Thomas, and Nate Allen. What do they have in common? Their teams all made the playoffs. I don't think this can be chalked up to luck as each of these players had a major impact on his team's defensive success (although Allen was lost late in the year to injury).

 

Look for players like UCLA's Rahim Moore and Florida's Ahmad Black to be the biggest beneficiaries this April.

 

9- I know the Bears are the luckiest team in the NFL. 

 

They had the "Calvin Johnson Play" in Week 1. Every game against tough non-divisional competition came at home (Philly, New England, NY Jets), and they were able to win two of those three games. Then, they back into the number two seed thanks to a Philadelphia collapse at home against Minnesota. Now, they get the Seahawks at home instead of the Saints? Wow.

 

10- I know the AFC will feature two of its best rivalries in the Divisional Round: New York at New England and Baltimore at Pittsburgh. This will be the third matchup this year for each of these teams (each team won once). I cannot wait. 

 

11- I know road teams won't be as lucky in the Divisional Round as they were on Wildcard Weekend, but I expect two of them to emerge victorious: Green Bay and New York.

 

In Week 12, the Packers nearly won in Atlanta (the Falcons were saved by a late Matty Ice drive). They finally may have found a running game and are riding waves of momentum. The Saints laid the blueprint for success against the Falcons two weeks ago.

 

The Jets have a lot to prove after being walloped during Week 13 at New England. Two things that give me hope: a) the Patriots have completely avoided the turnover bug, and that cannot last; b) the New England defense has been terrible. Rex will exploit that weakness.

 

Oh yea, my Packers-Jets Super Bowl prediction still lives.

 

 

 

"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the untrumpable SI.com's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" which happens to be my favorite article each week.

What An Awful Week for UConn

In the last eight days the following events have transpired at UConn:

 

12/27/10: Men's Basketball team gets smoked at Pitt, 78-63, ruining a perfect 12-0 start.

 

12/30/10: Women's Basketball team loses 71-59 at Stanford, the team's first loss in 90 games

 

1/1/11: After not selling their ticket allotment and having to eat millions of dollars in losses, the Football team gets crushed by Oklahoma 48-20 in the Fiesta Bowl.

 

1/2/11: Head Football coach Randy Edsall jets town basically in the middle of the night to accept the same position at the University of Maryland.

 

1/4/11: Men's Basketball team loses at Notre Dame, 73-70

 

To recap, neither basketball is undefeated anymore, the football team got waxed on national television, and the head coach fled faster than a criminal.

 

Is there any way we can erase all of these events from the record books, a la Reggie Bush and the Heisman?

 

 

My Problems with and Solutions for Our Country

Two things you should know up front (and probably do if you read this site regularly):

 

-I am incredibly proud to be an American, but I have some problems with our country.

-I really dislike people who complain without offering solutions.

 

With that intro, allow me to introduce a new* series called "My Problems with and Solutions for Our Country."

 

*I have run a series of sports pet peeves which will probably overlap a bit but just bear with me.

 

Here are four:

 

Problem #1: Frivolous lawsuits. It drives me crazy when people press charges just to make a cheap buck. Don't look for the easy way out. 

Solution: If the plaintiff loses the cases, he/she must pay all court-related expenses for both parties as well as a fine for wasting everyone's time.

 

Problem #2: The BCS.

Solution: Click here.

 

Problem #3: The television show "Teen Mom." Great idea, MTV. Let's glorify teenage pregnancy. Brilliant.

Solution: Take the show off the air and keep these "celebrities" out of the public eye (especially that one that keeps getting arrested that should never be seen on tv again).

 

Problem #4: The fact Carl Pavano will land another $30mm+ contract. He was already given one that failed miserably by the Yankees. Now, the Twins, Nats, or some other shlubs will give him tens of millions.

Solution: Do not give Carl Pavano a multi-year deal. Please. For the good of all of baseball and your franchise, DO NOT GIVE CARL PAVANO THIS KIND OF MONEY. Even Alyssa Milano knew when to bail.