1. I know this week featured a number of games many people thought were important but were actually relatively meaningless. This included: Colts-Raiders, Seahawks-Bucs, and 49ers-Rams.
The Colts won but still must win next week (assuming Jacksonville wins) in order to clinch a playoff berth. The Seahawks got crushed while the Rams won, but a win by Seattle at home over St. Louis at home would send the Seahawks to the playoffs with a less than stellar 7-9 record.
2. I know the Chargers have only themselves to blame. GM and self-professed know-it-all AJ Smith's hardline attitude with OT Marcus McNeill and WR Vincent Jackson got the season off to a terrible start, and San Diego could never recover. They will be watching this year's playoffs from home after today's loss to the Bengals officially eliminated them from contention.
3. I know the Jets won today despite losing their game against the Bears. With the Jaguars' loss, the Jets clinched the six-seed in the AFC. If Rex Ryan so chooses, he can rest all his regulars in Week 17, in essence creating a bye.
4. I know the Giants would rather forget the last four and a half quarters where they have been outscored 73-17. This awful run will likely cost them a playoff berth unless a number of things fall into place next week.
5. I know the Chiefs are a very good team. It took 16 weeks to convince me, but I am now a believer. With QB Matt Cassel under center, the team has won 10 of 14 games, and their two-pronged rushing attach of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones keeps defenses honest. This is a dangerous team.
6. I know the Tim Tebow Era in Denver might not end after next week. After falling behind 17-0, the Chosen One led the Broncos back in impressive fashion en route to a 24-23 victory. He threw for 308 yards and rushed for 30 more.
7. I know Josh Freeman is a lot better than I have given him credit for. His five touchdown performance against the Seahawks was a thing of beauty. The Bucs are in good hands going forward.
8. I know that I love the fact all games next week will be played during the day on Sunday. There will be 13 1:00 games and three 4:00 games. Best game: Chicago at Green Bay. Worst game: Arizona at San Francisco.
9. I know the Carolina Panthers clinched the top pick in the 2011 NFL Draft thanks to the victories of Denver and Cincinnati. Now, the future of the franchise might rest on Andrew Lucks' decision about declaring early for the draft. If he does decide to come out, there will be little mystery as to whom the Panthers will select.
10. I know the Falcons will beat the Saints tomorrow night, 34-24. With a win, the Falcons can clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. This would allow them to rest all of their players for the next three weeks (Week 17, then the bye week). Plus, Matt Ryan does not lose at home.
11. I know the Eagles will beat the Vikings on Tuesday night, 38-17. This season cannot end soon enough for the Vikings. They couldn't stop the Bears' offense last week. How can they be expected to contain Michael Vick and the NFL-leading Eagles offense?
Bonus (non-NFL):
12. I know it took me almost a quarter and a half of tonight's Little Caesar's Bowl to remember how I knew referee Ron Cherry. Then, it clicked:
"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the untrumpable SI.com's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" which happens to be my favorite article each week.
Sunday, December 26, 2010
Thursday, December 23, 2010
NFL: Week 16 Picks
St. Louis -1.5
Packers -2.5
Falcons -3
Best Bet: Baltimore -3
Upset: Oakland +3
Record: 40-33-2 (Best Bet: 8-7; Upset 5-8-2)
Preview: Little Caesar's Bowl (12/26)
| Little Caesars Bowl | |||||||
| Detroit, MI | |||||||
| Category | Florida International | Toledo | Edge | ||||
| Nickname | Golden Panthers | Rockets | Toledo | ||||
| Record | 6-6 | 8-4 | -- | ||||
| Proximity | 1,344mi | 60mi | Toledo | ||||
| Points Per Game | 28 | 28 | -- | ||||
| Points Allowed Per Game | 27 | 28 | -- | ||||
| Streaking | Won 4 of last 5 | Won 5 of last 6 | -- | ||||
| Last Game | L vs MTSU, 28-27 | W vs Central Michigan, 42-31 | Toledo | ||||
| Passing Yards | 213 | 204 | FIU | ||||
| Passing Yards Allowed | 206 | 239 | FIU | ||||
| Rushing Yards | 189 | 156 | FIU | ||||
| Rushing Yards Allowed | 157 | 131 | Toledo | ||||
| Yardage Disparity | 39 | -10 | FIU | ||||
| Best Win | W @ Troy - 11/13 | W @ Purdue - 9/25 | FIU | ||||
| Key Stat / Player | Started 0-4 | 3rd Best TO margin | Toledo | ||||
| Spread | FIU | -2 | -- | ||||
| Predicted Score | 28 | 27 | FIU | ||||
| Notes: | |||||||
| This game seems even on so many levels | |||||||
| The fact FIU is playing in its first ever bowl game outweighs the fact they have to go to Detroit | |||||||
Preview: Hawaii Bowl (12/24)
| Hawaii Bowl | |||||||
| Honolulu, HI | |||||||
| Category | Hawaii | Tulsa | Edge | ||||
| Nickname | Golden Hurricane | Hawaii | |||||
| Record | 10-3 | 9-3 | -- | ||||
| Proximity | 0mi | 3,000+mi | Hawaii | ||||
| Points Per Game | 40 | 40 | -- | ||||
| Points Allowed Per Game | 23 | 30 | Hawaii | ||||
| Streaking | Won last 3 | Won last 6 | -- | ||||
| Last Game | W vs UNLV, 59-21 | W vs Southern Miss, 56-50 | Tulsa | ||||
| Passing Yards | 388 | 284 | Hawaii | ||||
| Passing Yards Allowed | 212 | 305 | Hawaii | ||||
| Rushing Yards | 109 | 219 | Tulsa | ||||
| Rushing Yards Allowed | 132 | 137 | Hawaii | ||||
| Yardage Disparity | 153 | 61 | Hawaii | ||||
| Best Win | W vs Nevada - 10/16 | W at Notre Dame - 10/30 | Hawaii | ||||
| Key Stat / Player | QB Moniz most total yards | QB Kinne 4th most total yards | -- | ||||
| Spread | -11 | O/U 71 | -- | ||||
| Predicted Score | 61 | 47 | Hawaii | ||||
| Quick Take: | |||||||
| - If you like offense, this is the game for you. | |||||||
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Was the Cliff Lee Signing A Blessing for the Mets?
I started writing this over the weekend, but never got a chance to finish. Then, in today's blog I saw Buster Olney posted this:
I've been trying to convince some friends who are Mets fans that the Cliff Lee signing is good for New York, in the big picture. Here's the logic: The Mets are probably not going to be very good in 2011, and maybe even 2012. So, by 2013, when the Mets theoretically have rebuilt themselves into contenders, Lee will be 35 years old and the Phillies could have a roster top-heavy with older and more expensive players.
Way to completely steal my thunder B.O.
Cliff Lee agreeing to a five-year deal with the Phillies has sealed the fate of the New York Mets in 2011: they are playing for second place, at best. With a rotation of Roy Halladay, Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels the Mets simply cannot compete for 162 games. However, this is a good thing for the Mets:
+By Opening Day 2012, Halladay (34), Lee (33), and Oswalt (34) will be in their mid-30s.
+Now, the Mets can focus on 2012. After 2011, the contracts of Carlos Beltran ($20.07m), Oliver Perez ($12m), Luis Castillo ($6.25m), K-Rod ($15.5m including buyout), and Jose Reyes ($11m) come of the books. Of these five, only Reyes remains likely to be with the club in 2012 and beyond. If they can find a taker for Johan Santana (something I have urged the Mets to do since last year's August deadline) and possibly Jason Bay, the team would be able to start completely from scratch in 2012 with only David Wright and DJ Carrasco under contract for that year.
+Expectations could not be lower in and around Flushing. If ever there was a year to rebuild, this is it. With the Yankees, Jets, Giants, and Knicks stealing the headlines until at least February, the Mets can lay low and save money.
+Sandy Alderson has the luxury of taking his time. Omar Minaya did not. This means assets can be allocated to the draft. (In a rare piece of good news, the Mets will likey receive a supplemental first round pick if/when the Yankees' signing of Type B free agent Pedro Feliciano.)
There was some more, but these were the major bullets.
As a Mets fan, I really do think the Lee signing was a good thing for "us."
Monday, December 20, 2010
Adrian Beltre's Mystery Team
Last week, during what was thought to be a two team race between the Rangers and Yankees to sign Cliff Lee, a mystery team emerged at the eleventh hour to nab him. That team of course was the Phillies.
Now, in another perceived two team race, the Angels and Rangers (we think) are battling for 3B Adrian Beltre's services.
I think it's time another mystery team appeared: the Chicago White Sox.
Using last year's numbers as the basis, a lineup with Beltre on the South Side projects to score more than five runs per game, something only two teams in all of baseball were able to accomplish last year. It would be a righthand-dominant lineup, but moving AJP in front of Carlos Quentin would split the three lefties nicely throughout. It might look like this:
Juan Pierre, LF
Gordon Beckham, 2B
Paul Konerko, 1B
Adam Dunn, DH
Beltre, 3B
Alex Rios, CF
AJ Pierzynski, C
Quentin, RF
Alexei Ramirez, SS
Mix in a rotation that has the potential to be the best in the American League (don't laugh, see below), and the White Sox are dangerous:
John Danks
Mark Buerhle
Jake Peavy
Gavin Floyd
Edwin Jackson
Interesting 2009 stat: US Cellular had the highest HR Factor in all of baseball but their pitchers gave up the 24th fewest long balls.
Only Jerry Reisndorf and Kenny Williams know if they can afford Beltre, but payroll concerns aside, the improvement from Mark Teahan/Omar Vizquel to Adrian Beltre could be worth six wins to the White Sox (Teahan's career WAR: 3.5, Vizquel's 2009 WAR: 0.3, Beltre's WAR in 2009: 7.1), a team that won 88 games last season despite this lack of production from their third basemen and a down first half from Gordon Beckham.
Can Adrian Beltre lead this mystery team to a World Series? My money says yes.
Jerry, give it a shot and make my 30:1 longshot gamble look savvy.
And Adrian, you've done the West Coast thing and the East Coast thing without much team success (one postseason appearance in 13 years). Why not see what the Midwest is like?
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