Preview: New Mexico Bowl (12/18)

New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, NM
	Category		BYU		UTEP		Edge
	Nickname		Cougars		Miners		UTEP (huge year for Miners)
	Record		6-6		6-6		--
	Proximity		551mi		267mi		UTEP
	Points Per Game		24		26		UTEP
	Points Allowed Per Game		21		25		BYU
	Streaking		4-1, last 5		1-5, last 6		BYU
	Last Game		L @ Utah, 17-16		L @ Tulsa, 31-28		--
	Passing Yards		205		230		UTEP
	Passing Yards Allowed		188		223		BYU
	Rushing Yards		164		150		BYU
	Rushing Yards Allowed		151		181		BYU
	Yardage Disparity		30		-24		BYU
	Best Win		vs. Washington (9/4)		vs. SMU (11/6)		BYU
	Key Stat / Player		1-5 on the road		Top 10 in punt/kick returning		UTEP
	Spread		-12		O/U 50		--
	Predicted Score		34		24		BYU

Piling on the Pirates

As I've noted twice in the past week - here and here - the Pirates are amassing a group of fringe-average Major League players that would likely be picked in or around the 20th Round of your 2011 fantasy baseball draft.

 

First, they acquired Chris Snyder last season before the trade deadline. Then, last week, they signed Scott Olsen, Kevin Correia, and Matt Diaz.

 

Excited yet? Didn't think so.

 

So what did the Pirates do for an encore? They gave $5m to Lyle Overbay. Feel the excitement.

 

This last move drives me crazy for a number of reasons.

 

1. They already have a Lyle Overbay, and his name is Garrett Jones.

 

Look at these numbers-

 

		Jones	Overbay
2010
	Games:	158	154
	2B:	34	37
	HR:	21	20
	BB:	53	67
	K:	123	131
	OPS:	.720	.762
Career
	OPS+:	108	111
	BA:	.258	.274
	OBP:	.324	.358
	Slg:	.457	.447
	BA vs LHP:	.210	.259
	OPS vs LHP:	.630	.709
	BA:vs RHP:	.282	.279
	OPS vs RHP:	.854	.838

 

Granted, Overbay has the track record, and his numbers are a bit better. However, he will cost almost $4.5m more than Jones will this year, and he's four and a half years older.

 

Put simply, both players should be platooned (playing only against righties). Yes, the frugal Pirates just spent $5m on a player that needs a platoonmate.

 

 

2. This money could be better spent elsewhere, namely on a pitching staff. Heading into spring training, the rotation figures to include: Paul Maholm (career record: 47-59, career ERA: 4.48, career K/9: 5.6), Russ Ohlendorf (13-25, 4.40, 6.3), James McDonald (9-11, 3.84, 8.0), Scott Olsen (37-49, 4.85, 6.5), and Kevin Correia (36-43, 4.57, 6.6). None has any track record of proven, sustained success. All have losing records [relax saberists, I am illustrating a point here].

 

 

3. This money could be better spent elsewhere, namely on next year's draft. I have to give credit where due. Here goes. One thing that the organization did well in 2010 was spend money wisely on the draft. They took two flamethrowers in Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie in the first two rounds and paid them a combined $8.75m. Overall, they spent $11.9m on the draft, second most in all of baseball. This pattern should continue as there is zero chance the team will be playoff-bound in 2011. If this prevents them from spending similar money in 2011, shame on them.

 

 

4. Where does Ryan Doumit play? Doumit, arguably the Pirates' best player in 2008 when he posted a triple-slash of .318 / .357 / .501 has been plagued by injuries the past two years, but he will only be 29 years old on Opening Day. He can still hit. However, with the Jones / Diaz combo in right field and Overbay at first, there seems to be no room at the inn.

 

 

It's encouraging to see the team finally spending money, but the recipients of that money will do very little to create wins.

Preview: Humanitarian Bowl (12/18)

Humanitarian Bowl
Boise, ID
	Category		Northern Illinois		Fresno State		Edge
	Nickname		Huskies		Bulldogs		--
	Record		10-3		8-4		Northern Illinois
	Proximity		1,630mi		713mi		Fresno State
	Points Per Game		38		30		Northern Illinois
	Points Allowed Per Game		19		29		Northern Illinois
	Streaking		Won 9 of last 10		Won last 2		Northern Illinois
	Last Game		L vs Miami (OH)		W vs. Illinois		Fresno State
	Passing Yards		181		214		Fresno State
	Passing Yards Allowed		202		201		--
	Rushing Yards		265		157		Northern Illinois
	Rushing Yards Allowed		130		155		Northern Illinois
	Yardage Disparity		114		15		Northern Illinois
	Best Win		vs. Temple		vs. Illinois		Fresno State
	Key Stat / Player		RB Chad Spann - 20th in rushing yards		RB Robbie Rouse - 13th in rushing yards		--
	Spread		-3		O/U 60		--
	Predicted Score		31		26		Northern Illinois

Preview: New Orleans Bowl (12/18)

New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans, LA
	Category		Ohio		Troy		Edge
	Nickname		Bobcats		Trojans		Troy
	Record		8-4		7-5		Ohio
	Proximity		953mi		312mi		Troy
	Points Per Game		28		33		Troy
	Points Allowed Per Game		22		31		Ohio
	Streaking		Won 7 of last 8		Won last 2		Troy
	Last Game		L @ Kent St., 28-6		W @ Florida Atlantic, 44-7		Troy
	Passing Yards		158		288		Troy
	Passing Yards Allowed		218		248		Ohio
	Rushing Yards		169		153		Ohio
	Rushing Yards Allowed		115		171		Ohio
	Yardage Disparity		-6		22		Troy
	Best Win		@ Miami (OH) - 10/23		@ Florida Atlantic - 12/4		Ohio
	Key Stat / Player		14th fewest rushing yards vs.		12th most passing yards / game		Troy
	Spread		O/U 59		-2		--
	Predicted Score		27		41		Troy
	Quick Take: Troy's passing offense and home-field advantage should be enough to get by. They have also played the (much) tougher schedule.

Early MNF Thoughts

**Game Situation: Giants have second and goal from the Vikings' seven-yard line with eight seconds left in the first half leading 7-3.

 

My idea: As soon as Eli Manning dropped back to pass, I think the Vikings should have tackled every eligible receiver immediately.

 

Why: This would have taken at least four seconds and would have resulted in a four-yard penalty. So, the Giants would have had first and goal from the three with four seconds to play. At that point, there is a 100% chance the Giants kick a field goal to ensure scoring points before the half.

 

What Actually Happened: Manning completed a seven-yard pass to Kevin Boss for the touchdown, a 14-3 lead, and ultimately the game [Note: I'm calling this at halftime].

 

You have to think outside the box a little.

 

 

**Does Brett Favre have the biggest right hand you've ever seen? There are no jokes attached to this. His hand is enormous.

 

 

**Gross uniforms, Houston. Has any team EVER been successful in the all reds?

 

 

Bowl Previews

Beginning tomorrow, I'll be rolling out bowl previews with predictions. These are meant as quick, one-stop-shopping-type previews, but if you have feedback or suggestions, I'm all ears.